Prognostic models predicting clinical outcomes in patients diagnosed with visceral leishmaniasis: a systematic review

Wilson JP, Chowdhury F, Hassan S, Harriss E, Alves F, Musa A, Dahal P, Stepniewska K, Guérin PJ BMJ Public Health 2026, 4:e001196. doi:10.1136/bmjph-2024-001196

Summary: Prognostic models can steer clinical decision-making for visceral leishmaniasis by identifying patients at high risk of adverse outcomes. The authors of systematic review aimed to identify, summarise, and critically appraise prognostic models predicting future clinical outcomes in patients with visceral leishmaniasis. All identified models predict mortality and were developed in Brazilian or East African patient populations; none predict treatment failure or relapse, and none were developed in populations in South Asia, which are important evidence gaps. This review may be used by clinicians and policymakers to assess the applicability of existing models to their own patient settings. However, with a high risk of bias identified for all models, caution should be exercised when interpreting model risk and performance estimates.

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